A little clarity goes a long way.

Open Theses and select Write a thesis, use the Theses tab on a market, or write one after a successful trade. Choose YES or NO, give your probability of YES, and explain the evidence, catalyst, and what would change your mind. Sign in to publish. Your original view is stored with the market context and a server recording time.

The original text, probability and market snapshot stay preserved. Open your thesis to add a dated follow-up with new reasoning and an updated probability. A follow-up does not overwrite the original. Each author can publish one original per exact market context.

A signed-in account owns each post, but display names are self-selected. Attached trades, prices and market deadlines are browser-reported and are not verified onchain. Useful votes are reader feedback, not predictive accuracy. Related-question feeds can contain different market deadlines: inspect the frozen context on each thesis. No verified forecast ranking is currently calculated.

Published theses and follow-ups are stored by the service and are visible to people with access to this site. Use the same signed-in account to find your posts under My theses. Trading balances and positions are saved to your Google account when signed in; guest activity stays in this browser. A downloaded publication record includes the original payload and its hash; it is an application receipt, not a blockchain attestation.

Open a market, read its source and settlement criteria, and choose YES or NO. With an available Cash balance, enter the amount you want to spend, and review the shares, fee, price impact, and slippage bound before confirming. The browser records simulated trades; it does not submit a real-money transaction.

Cash is the in-app currency used for predictions. It has no monetary value and cannot be withdrawn or redeemed for money. Transfers to the displayed receiving addresses do not automatically fund this balance. When signed in with Google, balances and positions are saved to your account. Without signing in, they stay in this browser. Cash carries no prize or future token entitlement.

Google sign-in identifies your Thesis account. Deposit options show shared platform receiving addresses for Solana, Base, Robinhood Chain, and Ethereum. These addresses belong to the platform and are shared across users. Transfers are not automatically matched to a Google account or added to in-app Cash. The address display does not provide a personal wallet or convert Cash into crypto.

You buy outcome shares for a precisely defined question. A YES result pays 1 Cash per YES share and zero per NO share; a NO result pays the reverse. INVALID pays 0.5 Cash per share on each side. These are Cash amounts, not a dollar guarantee. Each complete YES/NO set is backed by one collateral unit in the contract design.

The displayed probability is the pool’s marginal price before fees. A trade moves the pool’s inventory, so your average execution price depends on its size. Review the executable quote for the actual estimated shares, average price, fee, and price impact. A market price reflects trading activity and is not a guaranteed forecast.

The trading fee is 0.50% (50 basis points), with conservative rounding to the smallest Cash unit. There is no separate protocol redemption or withdrawal fee. In a chain deployment, network gas is separate. The existing trading fee is allocated 80% to the seed provider and 20% to the protocol.

Open the market or use Sell from your portfolio. Choose the outcome you own and the net Cash you want to receive. The pool computes the shares needed; your maximum-shares bound limits execution. Selling is available only while the market is open and sufficient depth exists. After trading closes, you can wait for final settlement and redeem eligible positions.

The default slippage bound is 1%. Buys enforce a minimum number of shares received, while sells enforce a maximum number of shares spent. Quotes expire, and the contract rejects a transaction after its deadline or the market’s trading close. Refresh and review an expired quote before trying again; an old quote is not a reserved execution price.

Wallet submission, onchain inclusion, and indexer synchronization are separate stages. If you have a transaction hash, inspect that transaction before submitting another trade. A delayed interface update does not prove a transaction failed. A rejected wallet request does not submit a transaction. Browser-recorded trades are simulated and do not have blockchain confirmation.

Known position cost uses weighted-average cost basis and includes trading fees. Realized P&L comes from sales and redemptions. Exit estimates use executable pool quotes where available; they can change before a sale. A separate marginal value is only a reference price. Unpriced inbound transfers have unknown cost basis and should not be treated as zero-cost profit.

Redemption becomes available after a final result. Winning shares pay one collateral unit, losing shares pay zero, and INVALID pays half a unit for each share, rounded down in raw units. Redemption depends on settlement backing, not on the pool’s trading liquidity. Claims do not expire under the protocol design.

Each market freezes a source, observation rule, and designated proposer. A proposal includes evidence and starts a 24-hour challenge period. A funded challenge sends the case to the market’s disclosed committee. An unchallenged proposal can be finalized after its deadline. This committee-backed workflow requires trust in the named participants; it is not advertised as an external oracle’s security.

The initial proposal and one valid challenge each require a 100-unit bond in the protocol’s no-value collateral. A challenge must assert a different result before the challenge deadline. The committee has seven days from the challenge to rule. Proposal, dispute, and finalization states are shown separately, and a pending proposal is not yet redeemable.

INVALID is a precommitted settlement result, not a third tradable outcome. It pays 0.5 Cash per YES share and 0.5 per NO share; it does not refund your purchase price. If no proposal arrives within 72 hours of the earliest resolution time, or a dispute is not ruled on within seven days, the timeout path allows INVALID finalization.

The current stock markets are clearly labeled simulations. An underlying stock’s official close, a Stock Token’s oracle value, and a simulated equity price are different instruments and sources. The source and exact observation rule shown on the market determine its result; the app never silently substitutes simulated evidence for a live source.

The calendar shows trading close, observation, earliest proposal time, and published challenge or committee deadlines. All calendar times use UTC. The earliest proposal time is not a guaranteed finalization or payout time. A downloaded calendar is a snapshot; later proposals and disputes can introduce additional events.

No. Alerts are optional, browser-local, and checked while Thesis Markets is open. You can choose probability moves, upcoming trading closes, and resolution updates for saved markets. Closing the app stops monitoring. There is no email or background push delivery, and preferences do not automatically sync between devices.

Ranked performance needs a meaningful sample: at least ten resolved markets, 30 calendar days of history, and 1,000 Cash in qualifying trading volume. Unknown-cost transfers are excluded from ranked gains. Simulated history cannot establish a verified trading record, and rankings can be manipulated with multiple wallets. No prizes or token allocations are attached to rank.

No. Thesis Markets is an independent application. Robinhood-inspired visual design and intended use of Robinhood Chain do not imply a partnership, endorsement, brokerage integration, account access, or shared balances.

When signed in with Google, your Cash balance, positions, and saved markets belong to that account. Check that you are using the same Google account. Guest balances and activity stay in this browser and can be lost when site data is cleared. Alert preferences stay on this device. Connected-wallet holdings are separate.